Methodology Child Poverty Population Estimates

Report Description

This report provides estimates of the number of children (ages 0-17) living in poverty for California and its 58 counties by race/ethnicity. To derive these estimates, the proportion of children living in poverty by race/ethnicity is derived from the 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS). These multipliers are then applied to California Department of Finance Annual Population data to derive Statewide and County poverty population totals by Race/Ethnicity.

Refresh Schedule

This report is refreshed annually. For information on publication schedules, please refer to Source Data below.

Time Periods

This report uses calendar year time periods. Available Intervals: Jan-Dec. The earliest time period for this report corresponds with the begin year of the most recent available ACS 5-year estimates. The most recent time period for this report corresponds with the most recent complete calendar year.

Report Data

This report uses:

The U.S. Census Bureau’s, American Community Survey (ACS) 2019-2023 5-year Estimates. Series B17020 A – I – Poverty Status in the Past 12 Months by Age. Data were queried for the state and each of the 58 counties for children ages 0-17. * Based on a pooled sample 5-year ACS estimates are more statistically reliable and can provide data for smaller geographies. However, these estimates are less current and cannot be applied reliably to a specific year.

Child Population Data.

Notes on Source Data

The main sources of data for this site are the University of California, Berkeley quarterly extracts from the California Department of Social Services (CDSS) Child Welfare Services/Case Management System (CWS/CMS). These extracts are pulled approximately one month after each quarter ends, and the data are fully refreshed each quarter. Due to the time it takes to process, run, and validate the data, information on the website and in the California CWS Outcomes System reports is between three and six months old.

Refresh Schedule:

Extract name Data cutoff Website refreshed by
Quarter 1 April 1 July 1
Quarter 2 July 1 October 1
Quarter 3 October 1 January 1 (following year)
Quarter 4 January 1 April 1

For example, the CWS/CMS 2025 Quarter 3 Extract (Q3 25) reported on events up to the data cutoff of October 1, 2025. Reports based on the Q3 25 extract were available on the website by January 1, 2025.

For reporting purposes, we use the CWS/CMS extracts to construct three primary longitudinal analysis files types (allegation, foster care, and case) which track children’s histories in the Child Welfare System. In addition to specifying supervising county and capturing child-level demographics, these files include additional information:

Allegation File

– This file includes one row for each allegation for each child, including allegation type, reporter type, responses such as investigation, as well as allegation disposition (e.g., substantiated, inconclusive, and unfounded).

More information on the allegation file

Foster Care Files

– These files include one row for each placement home for each child, including dates of entries and exits to foster care, placement type, and length of stay.

More information on the foster care files

Case Files

– The primary file includes one row for each case service component for each child. Secondary files serve to locate cases within caseloads, offices, and counties. The files include information about children’s case services, including case openings and closings, and service components.

More information on the case files

Population Data Files

– Includes California Department of Finance (DOF) annual child population counts and Poverty Population Estimates derived from the US Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS).

More information on the population data files

Quarterly Wage File

– Quarterly Wage data from 1993 forward for all children age 16 and older with a record of an out-of-home foster care placement in the Child Welfare Services / Case Management System (CWS/CMS) since January 1, 1998.

More information on the quarterly wage file

Postsecondary Enrollment Data

– Postsecondary Enrollment data for children age 16 and older with a record of an out-of-home foster care placement in the Child Welfare Services / Case Management System (CWS/CMS).

More information on the postsecondary enrollment file

Important Note

This report is designed to provide an estimate of the population of children (ages 0-17) living in poverty for California and its 58 counties by race/ethnicity. Although the process utilizes the best available data for this purpose, there are limitations associated with this methodology. First, the ACS data are based on a sample and are subject to both sampling and non-sampling variability. Second, although more statistically reliable, multiyear ACS estimates do not provide data regarding specific years, rather only pooled values over a specific period of time. Therefore, the estimates do not capture annual changes in the actual proportions of children in poverty within a specific race/ethnicity group over time. Rather, they represent what would be expected proportionally given changes in the total size of a population of a specific race/ethnic group.

Methods

The American Community Survey (ACS) provides poverty population counts for seven different race groups (White, Black, Asian, Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander, Native American, Other Race, and Two or More Races). The sum of these seven mutually exclusive categories is equal to the total population. Consistent with Census methodology, respondents can also separately describe themselves as Hispanic or Latino. Tables in the ACS B17020 series are also available for Hispanics (of all races) and White, non Hispanics. However, Hispanic and Non-Hispanic breakouts are not provided for the other races.

The California Department of Finance (DOF) provides population estimates for seven different race/ethnic groups. White, Black, Hispanic, Asian, Pacific Islander, American Indian/Alaskan Native and Multi-Race. The sum of these mutually exclusive categories is equal to the total population. Hispanics are broken out separately from the other races/ethnicities. For research purposes Asian and Pacific Islanders are grouped into one category Asian/Pacific Islander.

Using the ACS data, a poverty multiplier was calculated by dividing the population within a specific race in poverty by the total population count (in poverty and not in poverty) for that race. Separate multipliers were created for the state and each of the 58 counties. This multiplier was then applied to the California Department of Finance Population Estimates in order to estimate a population of children in poverty for the state and each of the 58 counties. Since multipliers are applied to the counties and state separately, the sum of the counties may not equal the statewide total.

It is important to note that the race categories for these two data sources are not consistent. The following diagram details which groups from the ACS survey data were grouped/used to estimate the population in poverty for a specific race/ethnicity in the DOF population.

ACS Table American Community Survey CA Department of Finance
B17020-A White
B17020-B Black Black
B17020-C Hispanic
B17020-D Asian Asian / Pacific Islander
B17020-E Native Hawaiian / Other Pacific Islander Asian / Pacific Islander
B17020-F American Indian / Alaskan Native American Indian / Alaskan Native
B17020-G Two or More Races Multi-Race
B17020 TOTAL TOTAL (sum of race/ethnicity categories)
B17020-H White, Not Hispanic or Latino White
B17020-I Hispanic or Latino Hispanic

The following methodology may include references to report features not available on the public site version. On the public site, masking is performed to protect the privacy of individuals served by CDSS and comply with CDSS data de-identification guidelines. Values of 1 to 10 and calculations based on values of 1 to 10 are masked (‘M’ or ‘*’). In stratified views of the data, additional values (the lowest available) are masked to prevent calculation of values 1 to 10.

Report Dimensions and Filters

Child ethnicity is collapsed into six groups based on 31 codes from the CWS/CMS variables p_ethnctyc and hisp_cd. Ethnic groups and codes are listed below:

  1. Black
    • Black (823)
    • Ethiopian (826)
  2. White
    • White (839)
    • White-Armenian (840)
    • White-Central American (841)
    • White-European (842)
    • White-Middle Eastern (843)
    • White-Romanian (844)
  3. Latino
    • Those children coded as Hispanic using the Hispanic Origin indicator (hisp_cd = ‘Y’), regardless of primary ethnicity (p_ethnctyc) selection
    • Hispanic (830)
    • Mexican (3164)
    • South American (3165)
    • Caribbean (3162)
    • Central American (3163)
  4. Asian/PI
    • Asian Indian (822)
    • Cambodian (824)
    • Chinese (825)
    • Filipino (827)
    • Guamanian (828)
    • Hawaiian (829)
    • Japanese (831)
    • Korean (832)
    • Laotian (833)
    • Other Asian/Pacific Islander (834)*
    • Other Asian (5922)
    • Other Pacific Islander (5923)
    • Hmong (835)
    • Polynesian (836)
    • Samoan (837)
    • Vietnamese (838)
  5. Native American
    • Alaskan Native (820)
    • American Indian (821)

*Code is inactive.

Note: In late 2017, CDSS provided instruction to counties to ask clients which of the federally recognized races (those marked with an asterisk in CWS/CMS) they identify with. Once a federally recognized race is selected, a secondary “Hispanic” ethnicity can be selected in Other Ethnicity. If the client does not identify with any federally recognized race, then workers were asked to select “Declines to State” as the primary race. However, the Hispanic Origin indicator should always be marked as “Yes” for children with Latino backgrounds in order to avoid accidental categorization into Missing.

When ethnicity is not selected as a dimension on the website, the default filter includes Missing values and all ethnicities. Users can also filter *DYNAMIC* reports to include only children of specific ethnic groups (e.g., only Native American and White children) by checking those ethnicities for which report data are to be included.

Census-based Ethnicity’ option (available on some reports) labels will read ‘Hispanic’ rather than ‘Latino’ for consistency with Census Bureau usage.

Ethnic groups for population data and rates reports are based on the California Department of Finance annual population projections.

  1. Black
  2. White
  3. Latino
  4. Asian/PI
  5. Native American
  6. Multi-Race

In the rates reports and disparity indices, the denominators–child population based on California Department of Finance data–may include children/youth in the multi-race category. However, the numerators–children with allegations, children with investigations, etc., based on CWS/CMS–always have null values for multi-race, since we do not construct a multi-race category from CWS/CMS data. Conversely, ethnicity may be missing in CWS/CMS and, in those cases, rates numerators are categorized as missing. Department of Finance population data does not include a missing category and, therefore, that row is always null for the denominators of the rates reports. Given these differences between the data sources and the resulting null values, no rates are calculated for the multi-race or missing rows.

See Population methodology for important details.

Note: For Transition Age Youth (TAY) reports, the category Missing is suppressed, therefore the total for this dimension will differ from the total for other dimensions in the same report.