Methodology Disparity Indices by Ethnicity

Report Description

This report examine disparity in the rates of child welfare system contact by race/ethnicity. A disparity index (risk ratio) is computed for each race/ethnicity as it compares with every other. In general, an index greater than 1 suggests an increased likelihood of that group experiencing the contact type than the comparison group, and an index less than 1 suggests a decreased likelihood. An index equal to 1 suggests no difference between the two groups.

This report utilizes population projections from the California Department of Finance. Please refer to the Child Population Methodology for information on these data.

Refresh Schedule

This report is refreshed annually. For information on publication schedules, please refer to Source Data below.

Time Periods

This report uses calendar year time periods. Available Intervals: Jan-Dec. The earliest available time period for this report is Jan 2000 – Dec 2000. The end date of the most recent time period corresponds with the most recent calendar year time period included in the data extract.

Report Data

This report uses the Allegation File, Foster Care Files and Population Data Files. For information on these files, please refer to Source Data below.

Notes on Source Data

The main sources of data for this site are the University of California, Berkeley quarterly extracts from the California Department of Social Services (CDSS) Child Welfare Services/Case Management System (CWS/CMS). These extracts are pulled approximately one month after each quarter ends, and the data are fully refreshed each quarter. Due to the time it takes to process, run, and validate the data, information on the website and in the California CWS Outcomes System reports is between three and six months old.

Refresh Schedule:

Extract name Data cutoff Website refreshed by
Quarter 1 April 1 July 1
Quarter 2 July 1 October 1
Quarter 3 October 1 January 1 (following year)
Quarter 4 January 1 April 1

For example, the CWS/CMS 2025 Quarter 3 Extract (Q3 25) reported on events up to the data cutoff of October 1, 2025. Reports based on the Q3 25 extract were available on the website by January 1, 2025.

For reporting purposes, we use the CWS/CMS extracts to construct three primary longitudinal analysis files types (allegation, foster care, and case) which track children’s histories in the Child Welfare System. In addition to specifying supervising county and capturing child-level demographics, these files include additional information:

Allegation File

– This file includes one row for each allegation for each child, including allegation type, reporter type, responses such as investigation, as well as allegation disposition (e.g., substantiated, inconclusive, and unfounded).

More information on the allegation file

Foster Care Files

– These files include one row for each placement home for each child, including dates of entries and exits to foster care, placement type, and length of stay.

More information on the foster care files

Case Files

– The primary file includes one row for each case service component for each child. Secondary files serve to locate cases within caseloads, offices, and counties. The files include information about children’s case services, including case openings and closings, and service components.

More information on the case files

Population Data Files

– Includes California Department of Finance (DOF) annual child population counts and Poverty Population Estimates derived from the US Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS).

More information on the population data files

Quarterly Wage File

– Quarterly Wage data from 1993 forward for all children age 16 and older with a record of an out-of-home foster care placement in the Child Welfare Services / Case Management System (CWS/CMS) since January 1, 1998.

More information on the quarterly wage file

Postsecondary Enrollment Data

– Postsecondary Enrollment data for children age 16 and older with a record of an out-of-home foster care placement in the Child Welfare Services / Case Management System (CWS/CMS).

More information on the postsecondary enrollment file

Important Note

These indices should be interpreted cautiously. Especially when the rate is computed based on a small population, you may notice large disparities that are due more to the small denominator than excessive system contact. Further, large fluctuations and margins of error are common. Finally, in some communities it is possible to have extremely low counts of children of some races/ethnicities in the population, particularly after accounting for poverty. In these instances, disparity indices may not be displayed.

Methods

This report is based on the population of children who had child welfare system contact during a given year while between the ages of 0 and 17. Indices are stratified at the level of child welfare contact: Allegations, Substantiated Allegations, Entries, and In Care. Allegations are unduplicated counts of children for whom a child maltreatment allegation was received during the analysis year. Substantiated Allegations are unduplicated counts of children with a substantiated case during the analysis year. Entries to care are based on the count of unique children who entered care (both entries and re-entries) without restriction on the days spent in care. Entries and In Care Rates are restricted to cases supervised by a Child Welfare Agency. Children with missing county assignment are included in the statewide calculation. Given the methods outlined above, county values may not sum to statewide total.

Disparity or Disproportionality is the degree to which groups of children are present in the child welfare system at rates that are higher or lower than their presence in the general population. Although we compute a Disproportionality Metric (DM) for descriptive purposes, we do not recommend that it be used as a measure for comparing racial representation. The Disproportionality Metric is problematic due to its mathematical construction (which imposes a theoretical maximum based on the size of the minority group population). (For additional details, please see Shaw, T. V., Putnam-Hornstein, E., Magruder, J., & Needell, B. (2008). Measuring racial disparity in child welfare. Child Welfare, 87(2), 23-36.)

Instead, we recommend using a relative risk or relative rate ratio, which we refer to as a Disparity Index (DI). Disparity is used to refer to the lack of equity between groups and derived in one of two ways: either by computing a ratio based on the rates per 1,000 for two groups or by computing a ratio based on the disproportionality metrics for two groups.

The Disparity Index (DI) can in be interpreted in the following ways:

  • DI of 1.00 means that the risk of the event is identical in two groups.
  • DI that is less than 1.00 means that the risk is lower in the selected group versus a comparison.
    • For example, a DI of 0.30 indicates that the risk of the outcome is reduced to 30% for the selected group versus the comparison. A DI of 0.30 may also be interpreted as indicating that the risk is reduced by 70% for the selected group versus the comparison, and stated in a way the expresses the difference. For example, a DI of 0.30 indicates that the selected group is 70% less likely than the comparison group to experience the outcome.
  • DI that is greater than 1.00 means that the risk is greater in the selected group versus a comparison.
      • When the DI is greater than 1.00 but less than 2.00, the index may be interpreted as indicating the greater likelihood as a percentage. For example, a DI of 1.34 indicates that the selected group is 34% more likely than the comparison group to experience the outcome.
      • When the DI is greater than 2.00, the index should be interpreted as indicating how many times as likely the selected group is to experience the outcome. For example, a DI of 2.34 indicates that the selected group is more than two times likely to experience the outcome than the comparison group.

Notes

Cells containing a period (“.”) represent a value of zero. In cells representing quotients, a period may also indicate the indeterminate form 0/0.

The following methodology may include references to report features not available on the public site version. On the public site, masking is performed to protect the privacy of individuals served by CDSS and comply with CDSS data de-identification guidelines. Values of 1 to 10 and calculations based on values of 1 to 10 are masked (‘M’ or ‘*’). In stratified views of the data, additional values (the lowest available) are masked to prevent calculation of values 1 to 10.

Secure Site Features

This report can also be run with filters in place to restrict the data to various subgroups of other variables (e.g., Black subgroup of the Ethnicity variable, <1 year old subgroup of the Age variable, etc.).  Please see Report Dimensions and Filters for details.